Updated Fourth of July Forecast

We have been tracking a rain threat for the upcoming days since early last week, and the most disappointing day to see rain is the 4th. Since the National Weather Service has been recording the weather in South Bend, we have seen rain on the fourth thirty percent of the time. We have only seen rain above an inch two years, in 2001 and 1932. If we get rain this year, we will likely get closer to the average 0.11 inches. Temperature is going to be around average as well.

Most models have chances for rain on the Fourth in the afternoon but taper off in the evening. Since the fourth is more than 48 hours away, we only have long range models to work off of right now. These long range models have a frame every 3 hours, based on a standard time for the entire world. Our frames are at 8pm and 11pm, and some models have rain around our area at these times. Long range models also aren’t as high resolution as short range models which makes them have a more blobby appearance. Right now, we wouldn’t be surprised if an isolated shower popped up in Michiana around dusk, but we will keep you updated on the ABC57 weather app.