The Winter Symphony: Outlook 2025
Ask yourself this. What does summer weather sound like? What does winter sound like? What does a forecast sound like? A forecast can be tuned just like a musical instrument.
A sound – like my voice -- is a vibration that generates a wave through matter such as gas, liquid or solid.
Sine Wave
Our atmosphere also has waves.
Atmospheric Waves
The movement of air on our spinning earth isn’t uniform, there are bends, twists, highs and lows in the weather pattern. These are atmospherics waves.
Do you see any similarities?
All waves have a frequency -- and amplitude – we hear those as pitch and volume.
If you listen to two different instruments, say a cello and a violin. Even if they play the same note, they will sound different.
Each instrument plays at a different frequency or pitch, a higher pitch – the violin - has a shorter wavelength.
A lower pitch – like the cello -- has a longer wavelength.
You can learn more about pitch / frequency here.
A change in volume is how we interpret amplitude, the louder the sound, the higher the amplitude of the wave, or the more energy it has.
Atmospheric waves have these same properties.
The Jet Stream
The jet stream meanders along long planetary waves, dipping into low pressure troughs and rising into high pressure ridges.
The deeper the trough or the higher the ridge – reflects the strength of weather pattern.
A deep trough is typically associated with a strong winter storm, like a blizzard.
Where a high ridge will bring mild, fair weather.
There are also accompanying short waves – which are much more frequent — that play through the underlying pattern – like a melody.
But what would atmospheric waves sound like?
“Music can connect with us. Can, for example, if you, if you think of your favorite song, it makes you feel a certain way, usually a happy feeling, perhaps. Or if you were hearing a sad song, it might make you feel sad.” Says Alastair Willis South Bend Symphony Orchestra Music Director
How would winter resonate?
Willis says, “a piece of music that would describe winter, and there are lots of them. And where my mind goes immediately is to Vivaldi's four seasons. Describes a season of winter, and in that he describes slipping on the ice. He describes the snow falling and being inside warm next to the fire. He describes teeth chattering and really cold as so.”
The first movement has a quick-building tension and a melody that cuts like the wind, giving a feeling of coldness.
The second movement is slower, more relaxed, like you’re inside by the fire...
What does calm, fair weather sound like?
“Calm fair weather? What would that sound like? Certainly, a slow tempo, a nice, familiar melody and soothing harmonies.” Says Willis.
What does stormy weather sound like?
“Gosh, stormy weather, I think, would be a faster speed to perhaps, imitate the wind, jagged rhythms, thorny harmonies and strange melodies.” Say’s Willis.
A long stretch of mild weather is going to be very mono-tone.
Last winter I could have played the tune – BLAST-- it was one loud note – the second warmest winter on record!
A stormy weather pattern is active, with multiple lows, fronts and troughs passing through the area. If it was a song, it would have an active melody and harmony.
So, what are we composing for this winter?
To help with this year's forecast we have the south bend symphony with guest conductor tania miller playing the works of Shostakovich and Mozart.
Let’s listen to a few of these songs. What type of weather do they make you feel?
Alastair Willis interpretation. “Shostakovich's second, movement makes me feel on edge. Makes me feel anxious. There's tension there. The music seems to be grinding, seems to be going forward with a fast energy, and I'm on the edge of my seat wanting to know what's going to happen next.”
This winter will be more active than last year, as the pattern switches from a dominant El Niño to a likely weak La Niña.
But that transition is slow and could take until the end of winter.
So, I do not expect our winter symphony to start so harshly, as this melody does.
Let’s listen to something lighter...
Willis again. “Mozart's first moment is full of splendor, ceremonious. It makes me feel grand. It's joyful. Something, something big is about to happen.”
Fal Data Through 11/19/24 with departure form normal below
Given our current mild trend this fall -- and warm year (again) -- I expect winter to start more slowly and gently than this melody.
Thanks to our warming climate, the cold season starts later and ends sooner.
But when the cold season finally arrives ...
It may hit sharply like Shostakovich's fourth movement
“The fourth movement. It to me, it sounds like somebody somewhere is angry, stamping, insisting, I want to know what is happening, what's going on? Where are we going? What is this about?” says Willis.
The Polar Vortex
With a weak La Niña, the polar vortex may be a bigger player this year and spill cold air our way, mid-winter.
How harsh this winter becomes depends on just how a trough or ridge – lands in Michiana. Even if the polar vortex is active, it still must lean in our direction and not toward another part of the globe.
I believe winter 2025 will most echo Mozart's third movement with its gentle start, followed by multiple changes in tempo, volume and pitch.
I expect this winter to be more active than last winter, especially through the heart of season in January.
Winter Forecast with departure from normal below
Last winter – there were only about two weeks of cold and snow. This winter could more than double that, especially if the polar vortex gets its own movement.
I’m predicting 53 inches of snow and 3 nights below zero. Some snow may still struggle to stick -- with another winter with above normal temperatures, but this season is less likely to be in the running for the warmest all-time.
Alastair Willis, “And we end in happiness this, if this was an opera, it would be a happy opera. It would not be a tragedy at all. And we end feeling great.”
A special thanks in helping produce this outlook goes out to
The South Bend Symphony Orchestra
Tania Miller, Guest Conductor
DeBartolo Performing Arts Center at Notre Dame
Notre Dame Symphony Musicians
Anna Rahner (Cello)
Jack Nero (Violin)
You can listen to a playlist of the Shostakovich and Mozart pieces here.