Quiet tropics as we approach the hurricane season peak

We are rapidly approaching the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season - but we’ve only had one hurricane so far. This year, the tropics have been quiet with this August being the first with no named storms since 1997. By this time last year, there had already seen 12 named storms.

The past 2 years have brought extremely active hurricane seasons starting with 2020 being the most active season on record bringing 30 named storms. There were so many hurricanes during 2020 that names extended into the Greek alphabet.

2021 brought 21 named storms, making it the 3rd most active season on record behind 2005, the only other year to feature the Greek alphabet.

The peak window for hurricane season in which most hurricanes typically form lasts from mid-August to mid-October. This time period accounts for 87% of category 1 and 2 hurricanes as well as 96% of major hurricanes which are classified as category 3, 4, and 5.

There are currently two storms in the Atlantic - one hurricane and one tropical storm - just in time for the true peak of the hurricane season coming up this Saturday, September 10th.

By this time last year, we’d already seen 12 named storms in the Atlantic. This year, we’ve only seen 5 named storms with just 1 of these reaching hurricane status - Hurricane Danielle. Hurricane Danielle has topped out at category 1 and is slowly dying down. Thankfully, this hurricane has been in open water, posing no threat to anywhere in the US.

The next storm that we need to keep an eye on is Tropical Storm Earl. It’s currently classified as a tropical storm, but is forecasted to reach at least category 2 status. Some models suggest that this storm could develop into a category 3 hurricane.

Tropical Storm Earl is currently north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands moving northward towards the Bermuda Islands. It is expected to reach the islands Thursday night with wind impacts starting Thursday morning.