'The clock is ticking,' Michiana farmers might see soybean surplus spoiled by Trade War

ELKHART COUNTY, Ind. -- A michiana farmer for more than twenty years, Brent Reed rarely gets rattled.

"I don't think you'd be a farmer if you got stressed easy," Reed laughed. His usual main stressor, the weather, proved to be a source of zen this year, despite a late-season drought.

"The good lord blessed us with the rains when we needed it this year," Reed recounted. "So we're seeing everywhere from 10 to 15% above average yields on the soybeans and corn."

In any other year, this kind of surplus would be the happy ending of this story.

However, these are not typical times. This bumper crop could actually be a bad thing, due to the United States' tariff stalemate with China.

"China is the world's number one importer of soybeans," Indiana Farm Bureau Chief Economist Todd Davis explained. "so, if they're not buying from the United States, that's a big loss, because there's really no other country, or even combination of countries, that can add up to the demand that China has."

Davis said Indiana farmers are worried about the narrow window they're up against.

While it's harvest season for the United States, it's planting season in South America. In about four months, those cheaper South American soybeans will hit the market.

"China is going to buy from them," Davis surmised, "unless if we have some sort of agreements and more normalized trade relationships."

Davis also said all the trade uncertainty between China and the U.S. hasn't helped farmers as they try to plan ahead for next year.


Brent Reed told ABC57 News the tariffs are partially behind a spike in the cost of fertilizer he needs to farm in 2026.


"The average of all the fertilizer that we use is about 20% higher than last year," Reed calculated.

And while Reed relayed that this is just the latest challenge in a calling filled with challenges, Todd Davis warned that time is running out for the trump administration to reach a trade agreement with China.


"The clock's ticking," Davis said, "because we get in the first part of next year, our marketing window for exports are going to be closing, and that's going to leave our farmers out to dry."