(CNN) — Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley will advance to November’s general election for an open US Senate seat in North Carolina, CNN’s Decision Desk projects, setting up a marquee contest critical for both parties.

Cooper, a former two-term North Carolina governor, and Whatley, who served as Republican National Committee chairman during President Donald Trump’s successful 2024 campaign, were both recruited by their respective party leaders for what will be an expensive and closely watched contest to replace retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

Democrats must net four seats in November to take control of the US Senate and will almost certainly need to flip Tillis’ seat to get there. Republicans are confident that Whatley can run on the strength of his endorsement from Trump in a state the president won three times.

North Carolina hasn’t elected a Democrat to the US Senate since Kay Hagan in 2008. This year, though, feels different for many Democrats who believe the Tar Heel State is one of their best opportunities to flip a Republican-held seat.

While the national landscape and Trump’s approval rating will be major factors, much of the Democrats’ cautious optimism is anchored to their candidate.

“It’s not just that Roy Cooper has never lost a race in 40 years, he’s overcome a Republican-leaning electorate to win a statewide election six times,” Larken Egleston, a three-time DNC delegate and consultant from The Southern Group, told CNN. “He has damn near 100 percent name ID. It’s going to be hard for Republicans – and you can see them having difficulties already – to turn him into a caricature. For better or for worse, whether people like Roy or not, North Carolina knows him.”

While he may not be as well known, Republicans believe Whatley will be able to hold onto the seat. He is endorsed by and has a close relationship with Trump. Republicans say that’s important to their base.

The North Carolina GOP also highlights recent registration trends as proof its party is on the upswing. While each party claims roughly 30% of registered voters, there are now more registered Republicans than Democrats for the first time.

Still, registered unaffiliated voters make up the largest share of the electorate, 39%. Strategists say it will be those voters who decide the winner.

“Cooper is a commodity that is well known to the voters and one that unaffiliated voters have been comfortable with. It’s going to be incumbent upon Whatley to build his own identity and make the case on why he is a better alternative for them to Cooper. It’s a more expensive path for Whatley,” said Paul Shumaker, a veteran operative behind five GOP US Senate victories who is not working on Whatley’s campaign. “Donald Trump had a winning coalition of unaffiliated voters in 2024. As long as Republicans can build a winning coalition with unaffiliated, swing voters leading up to November, they can keep this seat.”

Shumaker believes the deciding factor will be how voters feel about the economy.

“Midterm elections are about anger management and failed expectations,” Shumaker said. “Any Republican candidate in a battleground state, their fortunes will be tied to the economy and the president’s approval rating. If the economy is headed in the right direction, the path for victory for Whatley gets easier.”

Cooper has made affordability the cornerstone of his campaign so far, highlighting the state’s robust economic growth during his time as governor and his successful bipartisan effort to expand Medicaid; while tying Whatley to “chaotic” Trump policies, like tariffs, that Democrats say have increased costs.

Whatley has worked to attack Cooper’s reputation as a moderate. While touting Trump’s economic record, much of Whatley’s campaign focus thus far has on been casting Cooper as weak on crime and immigration.

“I want to thank President Donald J. Trump for his strong and unwavering support in this race,” Whatley told supporters Tuesday night, calling the race a choice between “a conservative champion for North Carolina who will be an ally for President Trump” or “a champion for the failed policies of the left.”

Cooper, in his own primary race victory speech, cast his Republican opponent as “an out of touch DC insider and big oil lobbyist, who’s only looking out for himself and his well-connected friends in Washington.”

Cooper and Whatley are both prolific fundraisers. According to data from the Federal Election Commission, Cooper has raised more than $21 million since announcing in July, while Whatley has pulled in nearly $6.5 million.

This story has been updated with additional details.

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