Quiet fall doesn't mean a "loud" winter is on the way

 

Michiana is in the midst of yet another dry and mild stretch of weather. Temperatures this weekend will reach the 70s, with some potentially hitting highs in the 80s early next week. 

Some are wondering, however, if this relatively "easy" fall means that we'll pay the piper during the winter months. 

I did some digging through South Bend climate records Friday. Since September 1, South Bend has already had two stretches of 13 days or more without rain. There have not been too many autumns with multiple long dry spells in our history, but I checked out the last five: 2015, 2005, 1999, 1990, and 1953.

Then, I checked the succeeding winter to see if there was a connection.

In short: there was not. This goes back to a concept that a meteorology professor told me a long time ago: Mother Nature has a quick memory. While certain climate connections (think La Niña and El Niño) can influence general setups and patterns, the atmosphere doesn't "remember" what happened a few weeks ago. 

Out of the five years in question, two had above-normal snowfall, two had below-normal snowfall, and one (the last occurrence, 2015) had normal snowfall. 

Stay tuned for Chief Meteorologist Tom Coomes' winter outlook coming out in November. Until then, we'll enjoy the nice fall weather while it's here!