Could frequent flooding slow drought expansion?

SOUTH BEND, Ind.-- If you have noticed frequent flood alerts on your phone lately, you aren’t alone. Frequent rainfall early in the year does lead to increased flood risks. However, it's important to understand how and when the National Weather Service (NWS) knows to issue these alerts.

There are tiers to the flood alerts that are issued. Lonnie Fisher, Forecaster at the Northern Indiana NWS Office, explains forecasters issue Flood Watches based on excessive rainfall events in the past and their impact. Warnings and Advisories are issued more reactively based on a particular storm and how much rain is being produced.

From there, they decide if the alerts should be area-wide or isolated—like rivers, streams, or specific counties. The criteria do not stop there—there are also tiers for rapid flooding cases. Fisher says that in these cases, a Flash Flood alert would be more appropriate for a more immediate response.

While flooding can be hazardous, there are some instances where it is actually beneficial. Just three months ago, some southern counties of Michiana were experiencing moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions. Now, the drought is nearly eliminated. Fisher agrees that the rainfall is helping get rid of the lingering dry conditions from last summer and fall. This pattern of rainy weather has diminished drought concerns, but only for the short term.

For long term results, this pattern will need to continue for drought risks to remain low in the summer and fall months. Fisher believes we are heading in the right direction.

“We’re obviously kind of staying in this relatively active pattern,” he notes. “There are no signals right now of anything that would say we're going to start heading back to dry at all.”