SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- While Michiana saw multiple rounds of severe weather earlier this year, they were outliers compared to when we normally see severe weather chances peak.
Summer months are when extreme weather is more common, not only here in Michiana but for the nation.
While the chances are still on the lower side across the nation, over a 30-year period, the chances of an area east of the Rockies seeing severe weather during the week of June 17 is above zero, while a little closer to home, we are flirting with the 5 to 6 percent chance.
This is thanks in part to what we're seeing today. These hot, humid conditions are funneled into the plains and Midwest by high pressure systems closer to the Gulf, making getting the ingredients to make severe weather that much easier.
You can tell it's going to be one of those hot humid days across Michiana, with heat and humidity, some of the biggest factors for us to see storms, so let’s take a look at that classic storm ingredients list.
I like to call it SLIM, shear, lifting, instability, and moisture. Moisture, we already have, the other three are slightly harder to achieve, especially the shear wind moving in different directions or at speeds at different levels of the atmosphere.
Turns out the lower Great Lakes region is one of the prime places to see low-level shear with this system, so that it's checked off.
The main line of storms is coming through thanks to a frontal system, so our lifting box is checked as well. One of the biggest factors in the air is the instability of the atmosphere, the energy storms need to form.
If a line of storms cuts through our area early tomorrow morning, it's going to eat some of the available energy that later storms would have to feed off, but if we see clear skies and hot conditions closer to the early afternoon hours, more of that energy will be replenished.
So, as we get closer to Wednesday evening, make sure you stay updated on the ABC57 Weather App.