SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- Lake Michigan’s ice coverage is below average for this time of year, with almost no ice on the coast in Michiana, so does this have any effect on the forecast for our area?
With more ice development on the lake, there is less water to feed into the lake effect, and having to travel over ice buildup from the surface ever so slightly diminishes the amount of snow that reaches the land. All these factors bring less snow to Michiana.
Lake surface temperatures are still in the 40s, and with an almost directly southerly flow, the cold air is going to be travelling over the warmest part of the lake, picking up a lot of steam, dumping a lot of snow. With no ice as a buffer, snow can go further south, areas in Pulaski County could see around three inches of snow, maybe more.
So, the low ice development is allowing the lake effect to dump more snow into Michiana, and with the winter storm watch in effect starting Wednesday morning. You can stay updated using the ABC57 weather app.
While we aren’t close to the true peak of ice cover on Lake Michigan, we are definitely lagging behind average development, especially closer to our area.
Ice has developed in some areas, bays that are a little more secluded and conducive for ice development, but a little closer to Michiana, almost no ice development on the southern shore. A lot of that is thanks to the waves of warmer temperatures we've seen, especially over the past week.
Ice cover on Lake Michigan has seen a pretty steep drop over the past couple of days, from around 10 percent at the end of last week, dropping to just 7 percent as of Monday.
Again, it can’t all be blamed on the temperatures as surface temperatures closer towards the coasts are bobbing right around the freezing mark. It’s also just been fairly windy this winter, keeping the water in constant motion which is not great for ice development.