How Venezuelan oil could impact American gas prices
SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- According to GasBuddy data, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas in South Bend is roughly $2.69. In Elkhart, $2.42, in Benton Harbor $2.40.
Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy, says the lower prices are due to less gasoline demand during winter and OPEC increasing its oil production last March. He says that led oil prices to reach multi-year lows, which De Haan says paved the way for sub-three-dollar prices the past few months.
President Trump announced the U.S. would obtain 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil.
“So that 30 to 50 million barrels of oil represents only about a third to a half of a day of normal global consumption. So, all in all, the amount of oil may sound significant, but it's really not so significant. It may impact oil prices by less than a dollar a barrel, so the impact from those 30 to 50 million barrels of oil probably only a couple cents a gallon, maybe at most,” said De Haan.
Trump is vowing to grow Venezuela’s oil production, possibly running it for years. As he pushes for control of Venezuela's energy resources, the country's interim president said yesterday that Caracas is "Open to energy relations where all parties benefit.”
As for Trump’s long-term hope to see increased oil production from Venezuela, De Haan says additional output would take years and a lot of its infrastructure has fallen into disrepair.
“Venezuela currently is only supplying less than one percent of the total amount of oil being consumed on a daily basis. So, we're talking about something that's going to take a long period of time,” said De Haan. “This infrastructure has been falling apart after years of mismanagement, corruption and US sanctions. Venezuela has seen a big decline in oil output over the last couple of decades, and it would take a lot of time, probably years and billions of dollars, to get that infrastructure back to where it needs to be to potentially support increases in oil production. So, short-term, small impacts. The long term, there's a lot of promise, but it's going to take a lot of years to potentially impact oil prices in a more meaningful way.”
Looking ahead at U.S. gas prices, De Haan says he broadly expects to see slight improvements in gas prices in 2026, and it’ll feel a lot like last year.
But there is always a chance of unexpected issues.
“Well, I mean, there's always the uncertain, the unpredictable, whether or not the situation in Venezuela improves or worsens. Somehow, there's still a lot of Maduro loyalists in the regime. So, the question becomes, will there be change. In addition, the constant fluctuations in the war— Russia's war in Ukraine, could impact prices, things like hurricane season. And of course, as we get closer to the spring —refinery maintenance, will there be any unexpected outages? Those are the types of issues that can come out of left field,” said De Haan. “And having said it, OPEC has been increasing oil production. If they were to suddenly reverse that policy, that could lead to a certainly big different outcome for much of this year.”
War Powers Resolution:
On Thursday, a handful of Senate Republicans, including Indiana Senator Todd Young, joined with democrats to narrowly advance a Venezuela war powers resolution 52-47. They needed 51.
It would require any future military action within or against Venezuela to go through Congress first.
Hours later, some House Democrats introduced their own resolution today.
The Senate will still have to vote on the final passage of this resolution. If it were to pass in the Senate, it would still need to be approved by the House and sent to the president's desk to become law.
Statement from Todd Young (R-Indiana):
“I support President Trump’s decision to bring Nicolás Maduro to justice for his many crimes, and I am grateful that, after years of oppression, the Venezuelan people now have a new hope. I also commend the bravery and professionalism of U.S. personnel who carried out the successful law enforcement mission in Venezuela last week.
Today’s Senate vote is about potential future military action, not completed successful operations. The President and members of his team have stated that the United States now ‘runs’ Venezuela. It is unclear if that means that an American military presence will be required to stabilize the country. I – along with what I believe to be the vast majority of Hoosiers – am not prepared to commit American troops to that mission. Although I remain open to persuasion, any future commitment of U.S. forces in Venezuela must be subject to debate and authorization in Congress.
President Trump campaigned against forever wars, and I strongly support him in that position. A drawn-out campaign in Venezuela involving the American military, even if unintended, would be the opposite of President Trump’s goal of ending foreign entanglements. The Constitution requires that Congress first authorize operations involving American boots on the ground, and my vote today reaffirms that longstanding congressional role.”
Statement from Jim Banks (R-Indiana)
“President Trump went after narco-terrorist Nicolás Maduro and America is safer as a result. I won’t vote to tie the President’s hands. I fully support his efforts to protect America’s interests in the Western Hemisphere and keep Communist China out of our backyard.”