Here’s what could be affected if the government shuts down again

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WASHINGTON DC -- The federal government is on the verge of partially shutting down, with Senate Republicans and Democrats at an impasse over funding the Department of Homeland Security after the recent fatal shooting of a US citizen during a protest in Minneapolis. It would come less than three months after a record-long, full government shutdown ended.

Now, federal funding for many — but not all — government agencies is set to run out after January 30, which would force them to shut down if lawmakers don’t reach an agreement. Several agencies, including the departments of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Interior, Energy, Justice and Commerce, will not be affected since Congress has passed legislation fully funding them for the rest of the fiscal year.

Still, even a partial government shutdown could cause a lot of pain. Travelers could face delays at airports; many federal workers could miss paychecks, and people may not be able to obtain certain federal loans to buy homes or operate small businesses.

Although Republicans control Capitol Hill and the White House, they need at least seven Democrats in the Senate to join them to pass a spending package under the chamber’s rules. The House last week approved legislation to fund the rest of the government through the end of the fiscal year on September 30.

But Senate Democrats see Friday’s funding deadline as an opportunity to push for reforms in DHS’ immigration enforcement operations. The chamber’s leaders are working with the White House on a deal to avert the shutdown.

President Donald Trump is no stranger to government shutdowns. He also presided over one in his first term, which lasted 35 days and had been the longest on record until last year.

Here’s what we know about the potential government shutdown:


What is a government shutdown?


Congress must provide funding for many federal departments and functions every fiscal year, which begins on October 1. If lawmakers fail to pass a spending package for the full year or extend funding for a shorter period, known as a continuing resolution, then many agencies and activities must shutter until Congress appropriates more money.

If none of the 12 appropriations bills that make up the federal discretionary spending budget passes both chambers, the government fully shuts down.

But since Congress has approved annual funding for certain agencies since the last shutdown ended, they can continue operating while other federal departments go dark. So the current impasse could result in a partial shutdown.


What is the shutdown deadline?


The partial shutdown would begin on January 31 if Congress did not act before that.

The affected agencies would include DHS, Defense, Education, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, State, Labor and Treasury, among others. They account for more than three-quarters of federal discretionary spending, said Rachel Snyderman, managing director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center.


What programs and payments will stop?


Every government shutdown differs somewhat but typically functions that are critical to the protection of lives and property are deemed essential and remain open. Other operations close down until Congress approves a funding package for the rest of the current fiscal year.

Some of a shutdown’s impact is known in advance. Agencies file what are known as contingency plans that detail what operations will continue and how many employees will remain on the job, many of them without pay. However, in an unusual move, the White House Office of Management and Budget is not posting agencies’ shutdown contingency plans on its website. Instead, the plans are hosted only on each agency’s site — making it harder to assess how the Trump administration will handle the shutdown and which activities it will deem essential.

For instance, the Department of Education said in its plan from last fall that it would furlough most of its staffers in a shutdown, though it would continue to dole out Pell Grants and federal student loans and keep making Title I and IDEA grant funding available.

The Washington, DC, court system said during the last shutdown that it would not issue marriage certificates or perform wedding ceremonies. And the National Flood Insurance Program would not be able to issue new policies, potentially snagging the closing of home sales.

Some government functions can continue — at least for a certain period of time — if they are funded through fees or other types of appropriations.

It’s likely that immigration, border patrol and defense activities funded through the GOP’s tax and spending package, which Trump signed into law last July, will continue.

The Defense Department said in its contingency plan from last fall that it considers its highest priorities to be securing the southern border, Middle East operations, the Golden Dome missile defense system, among others.

Since the tax season just started, it’s likely the Internal Revenue Service will require many of its employees to work, as it has in past shutdowns that have occurred at this time of year. During the last impasse, the IRS initially said it could use some of the funding it received from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act to keep all of its roughly 74,300 staffers on the job. But a week into the shutdown, the agency said it was furloughing roughly 34,400 employees.

Agencies and administrations have some amount of choice in which services they deem essential, said Molly Reynolds, interim director of the governance studies program at the Brookings Institution.

In Trump’s first term, Reynolds noted that the administration took some measures to make the shutdown less painful, such as allowing the IRS to process tax refunds — a departure from prior shutdowns.


What is the debate around funding DHS?


The shooting deaths of Alex Pretti and Renee Good, both US citizens, by DHS immigration agents during protests in Minneapolis this month have sparked widespread public outcry.

Senate Democrats have vowed to block the House-passed bill unless several reforms are made to DHS or unless DHS funding is spun off separately — changes that would require another vote in the House. Senate Republicans, however, have wanted to avoid amending the spending bill.

The deal under discussion between Senate leaders and the White House would extend DHS funding only temporarily to give the two sides more time to negotiate new policy measures on the deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. Among the Democrats’ demands are restricting roving patrols, tightening parameters around warrants for searches and arrests, toughening use-of-force policies and requiring ICE agents to wear body cameras and remove their masks.

Other federal agencies would be funded for the rest of the fiscal year, under the deal.

Still, even if there is a shutdown, nearly all DHS personnel will continue working, according to the agency’s most recent contingency plan.

The vast majority of employees in Customs and Border Patrol and ICE will be retained, as will those who work for the Transportation Security Administration, the Secret Service, Citizenship and Immigration Services and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

DHS Secretary Kristi Noem posted on X last fall that 70,000 law enforcement personnel, including in CBP, ICE and other divisions, would receive their paychecks.


Will Social Security be affected?


Social Security payments to senior citizens, people with disabilities and other Americans will not be interrupted, according to the Social Security Administration’s contingency plan.

“In the event of a lapse in appropriation, SSA will follow the contingency plan for continued activities, and Social Security beneficiaries would continue receiving their Social Security, Social Security Disability Insurance and SSI (Supplemental Security Income) payments,” the agency told CNN last fall.

Also, the unemployed will continue to receive their jobless benefits, as long as state agencies have administrative funding to process them, according to the Department of Labor.

Medicare and Medicaid payments will also continue to be distributed, HHS said in its contingency plan from last fall.


Will national parks stay open?


Yes, the 400-plus national park sites will remain open, as will the Smithsonian museums and National Zoo, since they have been fully funded through September 30.

The effects of government shutdowns on the national parks and museums are among the most tangible for Americans and tourists. The impasses have led to the shuttering of the museums and zoo and have either limited or restricted access to parks. Some visitor services in parks have also been unavailable during shutdowns at certain parks.


What’s the impact on airline travel?


Air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration officers are typically deemed essential and must remain on the job, though they are not paid.

Critical support staff would be furloughed and vital support programs would be suspended in a shutdown, the National Air Traffic Controllers Association said in a statement last fall. That would make it more difficult for air traffic controllers and other aviation safety workers to operate at full capability.

“In a time when aviation safety is under heightened public concern, a government shutdown would significantly add to the distractions our members must manage on the job every day,” Nick Daniels, the union’s president, said.

During the most recent shutdown, the Federal Aviation Administration mandated flight reductions at 40 airports, which resulted in thousands of flight delays and hundreds of cancellations nationwide on an almost a daily basis.


Is USPS affected by the government shutdown?


The mail will still be delivered, and post offices will remain open during the shutdown.

“Because we are an independent entity that is generally funded through the sale of our products and services, and not by tax dollars, our services will not be impacted by a government shutdown,” the US Postal Service said in a statement.


How about the impact on federal workers?


Federal workers bear the brunt of government shutdowns. Some are furloughed, while others are considered essential and have to continue working. But many don’t get paid until the impasse ends.

The pending partial shutdown would affect about 45% of the roughly 2.2 million civilian federal workers. More than 500,000 federal workers could be working without pay, while another 480,000-plus could be furloughed, according to Snyderman.

However, the Trump administration found ways of paying certain workers during the most recent shutdown. In addition to Noem paying DHS employees, Trump said during the last shutdown that the administration had identified funds to pay the military. The money was pulled from the Pentagon’s research and development funds.

Federal workers are guaranteed to receive their back pay after an impasse is resolved, thanks to a 2019 law. But the Trump administration last fall floated a different interpretation of the law, initially calling into question whether federal workers who had been furloughed will be made whole. They were eventually paid.

Also, federal contractors who may be furloughed or temporarily laid off by their employers during a shutdown are not guaranteed to receive back pay.


What does a shutdown do to the economy?


Shutdowns can have real consequences for the economy since federal spending is delayed, and many federal workers pull back on their purchases while they aren’t receiving paychecks.

The five-week shutdown in 2018-2019 resulted in a $3 billion loss in economic growth that would not be recovered, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate. It noted that some private sector businesses would never make up their lost income.

Also, because the IRS reduced its compliance activities during the shutdown, CBO estimated that tax revenues would be roughly $2 billion lower — much of which would not be recouped.

What’s more, it would become difficult to determine the health of the economy — which is currently in flux — during a shutdown.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics would not issue most economic reports, including the closely watched monthly jobs report, during a shutdown, the Department of Labor said in shutdown plan last fall.

The impact stretches beyond the federal government.

The US Travel Association wrote a letter to congressional leaders in late September urging them to avoid a shutdown, which it said would result in flight delays, longer airport security lines and canceled trips.

“A shutdown is a wholly preventable blow to America’s travel economy — costing $1 billion every week — and affecting millions of travelers and businesses while placing unnecessary strain on an already overextended federal travel workforce,” wrote Geoff Freeman, the association’s CEO. “The consequences of inaction and immediate and severe.”

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