How wildfire frequency has impacted air quality forecasts

SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- Fortunately, wildfire smoke should stay out of Michiana skies for at least the time being. But forecasting where all that smoke will go has gone from a minor detail to a major task for meteorologists in Canada and here in Indiana.

More wildfires have popped up in the Pacific Northwest

"If we compare it to previous seasons, it's a fairly rapid increase over the past few weeks."

Richard Carr, a wildfire research analyst from Natural Resources Canada, says we've been seeing some of the most active wildfire seasons in the past five years.

"So, it's kind of putting us up in you know what we used to call a fairly busy fire season, but still a lot less area burned than we saw in a couple of previous years."

"2023 was our most recently eventful year, and then I would say over this last month, it's been it's been pretty busy as well."

Anna Meyers works with a team of meteorologists to forecast when air quality will be affected across the state of Indiana.

Last month, an onslaught of wildfire smoke led to South Bend experiencing the worst air quality on record, with an AQI of more than 400.

The recent raging wildfires close to home and the health impacts of corresponding smoke have taken IDEM air quality forecasts, and forecasters, off of the sidelines for people like 25-year veteran IDEM forecaster Mike Derf.

"We would see some light impacts, but not the heavy impacts we've noticed here recently. Again, the Canadian fires with just the unique setup with the weather brought in that that heavy smoke."

Derf says the recent inflow of smoky situations has helped the team become better equipped for the years ahead.

"That was something that kind of stretched our system and really helped us to kind of refine our forecasting for these last few years."

The best way to stay updated on when air quality will be impacted is through IDEM's SmogWatch website, where you can sign up for text and email updates.

For our Michigan residents, enviroflash.info offers a similar service.