What will it take to reopen the government? A Michiana political expert explains

SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- It’s been nearly three weeks since the United States government shut down, impacting everything from flights being on time, to national park operations, to federal workers getting a paycheck.

Elizabeth Bennion, Chancellor's professor of political science at IUSB, explains some signs that point to a continuation of a shutdown.

“One of the things we look at to predict whether or not something will change is ‘what are the markets saying?’ So, some folks like to bet on politics, just as they do on the economy, and those predictions suggest that it will go at least until November. But more tangibly, the reason we are not particularly optimistic that the shutdown will end today is what both sides are saying— which is that the Democrats continue to blame the Republicans, and the Republicans continue to blame the Democrats, and they don't seem any closer to actually negotiating these final sticking points. Unless one side or the other gives in, we're unlikely to see this shutdown end,” said Bennion.

She says in order for the shutdown to end, there needs to be an end to the ‘blame game’ and increased pressure to reopen the government.

“In order for the government to reopen, the Democrats and Republicans will have to agree to some kind of either temporary or longer-term budget bill, and so far, they have not been willing to pass even a continuing resolution to keep the government open short-term,” said Bennion.

She explains what each side disagrees on.

“The Republicans are saying that Democrats are trying to get things passed that don't have anything to do with the clean budget that they would like passed, that issues like Obamacare subsidies—Affordable Care Act health care subsidies should be discussed later and separately after the government is reopened. Meanwhile, Democrats who don't have a majority in the House or the Senate and don't have the White House are looking at what leverage they have based on their concerns about health care premiums rising from about $450 to $950, and that fear that about 4.2 million people could be losing their insurance,” said Bennion. “And so, between that and medicaid cuts, Democrats are looking at this as their best opportunity to negotiate and saying— ‘in the past, these threats of government shutdown are one of the things that is used to force negotiation to take place and to simply not agree to negotiate at all, means that the government, the people who control the government, which are the Republicans, are choosing to keep it shut down.’ So both sides are saying, ‘Well, no, you know, this is really the other side trying to hold the people hostage with this continued shutdown.’”

She says it's hard to predict how long the shutdown will last.

“At this time, we don't see the American public saying, We will punish you if you don't reopen this government. And so that's really the thing that could make a difference, as one part of the other feels that they will be blamed, and they will lose seats in the midterm election. But right now, both are assuming that perhaps the other party will be blamed, and until that issue is resolved, and the politics behind [the] government shutdown is resolved. We may still be looking at this going into next month, if not longer,” said Bennion.

Bennion says right now, there are stopgap measures, which temporarily relieve pressure. For example, she points to funding the military. Though military members got their last paycheck, there is uncertainty about the next one.

She also brought up the impacts on federal workers.

“Federal workers, and they exist everywhere— including in Michiana— those who are furloughed are not getting paid and they are not reporting to work. There are others who are considered essential workers, and they are going to work and not getting paid. That puts a lot of stress and strain on those families, and also means they're less likely to be shopping and contributing to our economy. And so those people obviously are feeling the shutdown in a very tangible way,” said Bennion.

Bennion says stopgap measures related to military funding, SNAP benefits, or WIC programs, for example, are at risk of running out of funding as the shutdown continues.