Beryl brings heavy rain and flooding potential to Michiana

SOUTH BEND, Ind.-- Tropical storm Beryl is expected to make landfall in Texas tonight into Monday morning as a category one hurricane. 

Then, it will turn northeast and weaken into a tropical depression as it nears Indiana on Wednesday. The current National Hurricane Center forecast cone has the storm reaching central Indiana Wednesday afternoon. 

The exact track of Beryl is still uncertain, but confidence is increasing that Beryl will bring a swath of heavy rain and 20-35 mph wind gusts across the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes. The exact path will determine who sees the heaviest rain and the strongest winds, but model guidance does paint Michiana under the potential of heavy rainfall totals for the middle of the week.

This is not a forecast, but it is evident that one of the many forecast models is illustrating the potential of very heavy rainfall totals this week due to Beryl. It is likely a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain will fall from this system, but isolated amounts greater than that are possible. 

Of course, with this much rain, it is possible rivers could rise and areal flooding may be a concern by Wednesday and Thursday. 

However, the exact path of Beryl is still unclear, which does have impacts on where the heaviest rain totals will fall. The heaviest axis of rain could still shift leading up to Wednesday. 

The main messaging is the potential is there for heavy rain that could lead to river rises and flooding this week.

Four forecast models print anywhere from 1 to 3.25 inches of rain for South Bend by Wednesday evening. The range is still quite large, but the message is clear that heavy rain may impact much of Michiana by the middle of this week due to Beryl. 

It is not common to have tropical systems impact Michiana, but when they do, they can bring heavy rain and gusty winds.

ABC57 First Warning Neighborhood Weather team will keep you updated on any developing details as the path of Beryl becomes more certain. For now, be aware that this week could be a very wet one which brings the potential for some flooding and river rises.